Wednesday, September 10, 2008

So much for the GFS

In grad school I was introduced to the real scientific method. The one that was currently being used in academic and research setting. It is the one that allowed people to scrap data that didn't fit, wasn't expected, and was not understood. Maybe not "scrap" per se, but certainly left far enough aside to be forgotten about in the meantime. So as much as I longed to see humans work on their models to better understand the earth, I had to throw up my hands and laugh heartily at this mornings weather discussion about Ike.

IKE TRACK MUCH CLOSER TO ECMWF SO HAVE IGNORED GFS FOR OUTLOOK
PERIOD AND GONE WITH ECMWF FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FORECAST.
GFS SOLUTION WAS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT...TAKING STORM WELL WEST OF
US AND KEEPING NORTH TX IN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. ECMWF BRINGS
DRY COOLER AIR ACROSS AREA BEHIND THE STORM AND HAVE INDICATED
THIS IN THE GRIDS...BUT HAVE MODIFIED TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FROM
ECMWF VALUES FIGURING THE AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AS IT REMAINS IN
PLACE. SHOULD IKE GO WEST LIKE GFS FORECASTS...WE WILL REMAIN IN THE
WARM AIR AND NEXT WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THIS FORECAST. 84

I kind of like that little word "ignored". The truth is that we do not know what tomorrow holds. We spend a lot of time creating a bubble of certainty in our lives that we feel comfortable living within. But this is all smoke and mirrors. The hurricane will lands where God directs it to land, and rather than have a government agency urge them to evacuate, or urge them to stay, perhaps we should bow to the uncertainty of it all, encourage people to be responsible for themselves and their families, and move to a safer place if they are anywhere near the storm's reasonable landfall location. Maybe the government should be more up front about its inability to predict these things, instead of insisting that people listen to their models. Yes, they're helpful, and they create an outline of the way God fashioned His world to work. But if people understood and held to the precept that God alone dictates these things minute by minute, then they'd be less willing to hold to their models and more willing to merely observe and urge people to just be reasonable.

1 Comments:

At 9:45 PM, Blogger Matt said...

God dictates these things through physical mechanisms that can be understood, analyzed, and predicted.

The discussion you quoted is a great example of scientific method at its best. They had compelling, objective reasons for ignoring one model and not another.

 

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