Saturday, July 19, 2008

Some thoughts on models

I was very blessed by the Lord to be able to go storm chasing. I learned all about the one thing that scientists (and weather hobbyists) hang their hats on, and that is the model output data. All the way down to the moment by moment of weather, we cannot know what is going to happen. We rely on models. Most of the time they are accurate, but I have experienced an occasion of standing out in a field under perfectly blue skies where storms were supposed to have fired up. Models are never hills to die on. Ever. Yet they are used as gospel by those who advocate an alarmist global-warming perspective on the weather and economy.

Praise be to God. I had no idea that the events in my life would be not what I thought they were but for something completely different. To get an understanding of some of the players in this big game of global hysteria, and to have the opportunity to think critically about it. What grace, what goodness of God. Blessed be the name of the Lord.


At 8:39 PM, Blogger Matt said...

The models do a great job of predicting things like 500mb heights and even CAPE and helicity and other storm-related parameters. They were not designed to explicitly predict whether storms will fire up, or if it will be a good day for chasing. That's more a matter of incorrectly interpreting them. Not saying they're perfect though.

Global climate models are much much simpler than the ones that predict weather (they have to be, because they're designed for a very large domain and a very long period of time). On the other hand, what they are trying to predict is much much simpler. Are they pretty good at what they're designed to predict? Probably yes. Should they be used as gospel? Of course not.

One thing that is pretty certain though... if there's more CO2 in the atmosphere, the earth will be warmer. And there's more CO2 in the atmosphere now than there has been in many thousands of years, and it's increasing every day. It doesn't take a model to tell you that there will be some kind of impact on the climate.


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